Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-30 1.398944 1.477298 1.558908 1.650475 1.750618 1.857114 1.979324
2025-12-07 1.266913 1.374945 1.492394 1.630374 1.789085 1.967215 2.184108
2025-12-14 1.169656 1.291666 1.428029 1.593178 1.789780 2.018953 2.310286
2025-12-21 1.108671 1.241629 1.393610 1.582386 1.813756 2.092473 2.460684
2025-12-28 1.072826 1.216676 1.384480 1.597798 1.866461 2.200416 2.658540
2026-01-04 1.028277 1.177814 1.355098 1.584733 1.880489 2.257912 2.792662
2026-01-11 1.003441 1.160771 1.350335 1.600576 1.930357 2.362915 2.997291
2026-01-18 0.975162 1.137613 1.336083 1.602437 1.960632 2.442169 3.171056
2026-01-25 0.961931 1.132184 1.343266 1.631591 2.027944 2.575452 3.434289
2026-02-01 0.924567 1.094430 1.307038 1.600806 2.010536 2.586904 3.513287
2026-02-08 0.884422 1.051594 1.262399 1.556338 1.971070 2.563084 3.533740
2026-02-15 0.860065 1.028215 1.242192 1.543916 1.975783 2.603695 3.659624
2026-02-22 0.843304 1.014935 1.235811 1.551628 2.011883 2.696908 3.887363
2026-03-01 0.817430 0.988831 1.211319 1.532886 2.008163 2.728772 4.014727
2026-03-08 0.787773 0.956685 1.177398 1.499063 1.979723 2.719194 4.067069
2026-03-15 0.768588 0.937870 1.160872 1.489236 1.986660 2.766109 4.225927
2026-03-22 0.758929 0.931462 1.161000 1.503267 2.030570 2.876037 4.515233
2026-03-29 0.741081 0.913327 1.144111 1.491373 2.032989 2.916248 4.673869
2026-04-05 0.732919 0.908123 1.145040 1.505795 2.077665 3.031647 4.998614
2026-04-12 0.721119 0.897498 1.137840 1.507489 2.101591 3.112174 5.261879
2026-04-19 0.717648 0.898263 1.146802 1.534008 2.167572 3.273346 5.726663
2026-04-26 0.697815 0.875566 1.121197 1.506005 2.140583 3.260751 5.793482
2026-05-03 0.675070 0.848286 1.088266 1.465507 2.090601 3.201797 5.744132